ATLASHurricane intelligence
Checking NHC
Synthetic Atlantic demo
Synthetic demoAdvisory 18 (DEMO)Issued Jul 20, 15:00 UTC

Category 2 HurricaneIRIS

Northwest of the Turks and Caicos · 23.8°N, 69.4°W

CAT2
Max wind
90kt105 mph
Pressure
971mbEstimated center
Movement
NW10 kt315° bearing
Next scheduled updateJul 20, 18:00 UTC

Scenario payload just now

5 min edge cache · safe fallback
Synchronized forecast workspace

Track, spread & observations

Preparing interactive map…
+24hJul 21, 15:00 UTC
Demo baselineSynthetic recon
Forecast time+24h
Category 3100 kt

Forecast trust notices

The cone is not an impact boundary. Hazardous wind, rain, surge, and tornadoes can occur well outside it.

Intensity guidance

Wind-speed plume

Maximum sustained wind · knots

Demo baselineNo probability implied
Storm environment

Ocean & atmosphere

A favorable near-term ocean–atmosphere window is followed by rising shear and drier mid-level air near the forecast turn.

SST
29.4°C

Very warm

metadata only
2.9°C above the common 26.5°C tropical-cyclone threshold.
SHEAR
8kt

Low now; higher day 3

metadata only
Forecast to increase to 18–22 kt as the trough approaches.
OHC
84kJ/cm²

Supportive

preview
Deep warm layer reduces the likelihood of rapid self-induced cooling.
700–500 RH
63%

Marginal after 48 h

metadata only
A drier western sector may interrupt the inner-core organization.
17 (DEMO) → 18 (DEMO)

Advisory change intelligence

The synthetic forecast shifted west through day three while the near-term intensity peak increased.

28 n mi westTrack shift at 72 h
+5 ktPeak intensity
-6 mbMinimum pressure
  1. high
    Track nudged west

    The 48–72 hour baseline is 28 n mi west of the previous scenario cycle, reducing clearance from the northwestern Bahamas. [2][1]

  2. moderate
    Peak raised 5 kt

    The demo peak is now 105 kt as low shear persists through hour 48; model spread remains 18 kt. [1][3]

  3. moderate
    Late spread expanded

    The experimental day-five envelope widened 8% as steering solutions diverged after the trough interaction. [2][5]

Provenance & freshness

Data-source ledger

Every layer declares its provider and state.

  • Official NHC GIS overlayNOAA / National Hurricane Center
    just now

    The route handler checks the official ArcGIS service; this fixture does not claim a live advisory.

  • Atlantic demo scenarioATLAS fixture
    Synthetic

    Deterministic test data, clearly separated from official products.

  • GOES longwave imageryNOAA / NESDIS via nowCOAST
    15 min ago

    Live nowCOAST WMS pixels are available on demand; v0.1 does not yet decode the layer's source timestamp.

  • Base-reflectivity radar mosaicNOAA / NWS via nowCOAST
    7 min ago

    Live nowCOAST WMS pixels are available on demand; v0.1 does not yet decode the layer's source timestamp.

  • Aircraft reconnaissanceSynthetic 53rd WRS-style observations
    Synthetic

    Training observations, not a live mission feed.

References

Analysis citations

  1. NHC tropical cyclone advisory productsNOAA / National Hurricane Center
  2. Definition of the NHC track forecast coneNOAA / National Hurricane Center
  3. SHIPS intensity guidance technical documentationNOAA / NESDIS
  4. GOES-East tropical sector metadataNOAA / NESDIS
  5. ATLAS demo ensemble methodologyATLAS synthetic fixtureMethod proxy